An initial estimate of the scale and duration of this current wave/ripple. Summary: I predict that we are already at peak with about 140-150 deaths per day (~10% of all deaths) and that it will drop to about 70 death/day by mid November and about 20 by mid December, which is hopefully low enough that it will appear to be over by Christmas. However, I would expect an even smaller ripples in the new year, perhaps peaking at around 20-30 deaths/day (~2% of total deaths I suggest in January/February). I estimate that about 6000 deaths were delayed six months by the earlier lockup, that the total number of deaths attributed to covid will be about 48,000 and the cost per full life equivalent "saved" is about £5BILLION per life.
Saturday night Dundee Resistance held an impromptu Ceilidh in Dundee City Square. A good mix of people showed that they will not be cowered like a timorous beastie afeared of life. Such a good night!
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